Ask The Bookie: The benefits of backing the draw plus exclusive tips by Pete Nordsted
Anyone following the increasingly-popular ?five to follow? articles produced on a Friday here at Goal.com will no doubt have noticed a profitable betting strategy delivering a healthy profit on a weekly basis. Following each of Pete Nordsted's tips so far this season to a £10 stake would have netted a sweet £170 profit! Now anyone can have a winning bet but has Peter put together the kind of winning strategy can that deliver a long term profit?
The strategy
The strategy uses a past history of team?s results to provide a series of matches likely to draw from the English Premier League. Each of the teams in the Premier League has been graded from A-D with A containing the Champions League hopefuls and D being the relegation fighters. Grouping the teams in this way allows the strategy to reduce the number of variables and account for promotion/relegation without interrupting the collection of his vital statistics.
Having grouped the teams into these categories, he will look for patterns and previous results from similar graded teams when it comes to the upcoming fixtures. If you think this sounds complicated or unreliable then consider Arsenal?s propensity to draw with teams of a Bolton/Blackburn ilk (particularly away from home) as just one example.
The theory behind the strategy
There are a couple of aspects to this theory that make it more appealing than an evening at Hugh Hefner?s grotto. The main aspect is the value that is available in backing the draw. People tend to bet with their ?gut?, following their instincts and often backing the team they would like to win.
This means that a bookmaker?s liabilities can be stacked up on either team but only paltry amounts end up being staked on the draw. How does this help I hear you ask? Well if no one is backing a particular occurrence, the bookmaker will raise the price and in turn beef up Peter?s profit margin when a winner is selected.
If the true price of the draw is around 3.25, then the lack of bets can often boost the price to 3.5 or even 4.0. Add to that the fact that Peter?s selections often find draws in games where there is a heavy favourite to win the game (e.g. Sunderland vs Arsenal recently pictured below) and the price for the draw can be even greater still.
This means that from the three draw selections that are made each week, only one is required to turn a healthy profit. To explain, if you staked £10 on each of the three draws your balance will stand at -£30 before the games kick off.
If one of those games takes place at 12.45 on a Saturday and happens to end in a draw then you would win £35 (assuming the odds were 3.5) and your balance would stand at +£5 with two games left to play. Even if neither of those games draw then you are still up and if they do, well you might just be adding Peter to your Christmas card list.
Pete Nordsted's tips to date
Date
Match to Draw
Odds
Won or Lost
Profit
August 13
Wolves vs Stoke
3.95
Lost
-10
Bolton vs Fulham
3.4
Won
+34
Blackburn vs Everton
3.45
Lost
-10
August 20
Stoke vs Spurs
3.4
Lost
-10
West Brom vs Sunderland
3.4
Lost
-10
Fulham vs Man Utd
4.2
Won
+42
August 27
Sunderland vs Man City
3.4
Lost
-10
Blackburn vs Arsenal
4.2
Lost
-10
Blackpool vs Fulham
3.4
Won
+34
September 10
Birmingham vs Liverpool
3.4
Won
+34
Everton vs Man Utd
3.6
Won
+36
Wigan vs Sunderland
3.4
Won
+34
September 17
Wigan vs Man City
3.75
Lost
-10
Sunderland vs Arsenal
3.6
Won
+36
West Brom vs Birmingham
3.4
Lost
-10
TOTAL
+170
Pete Nordsted's tips for this weekend
English Premier League - September 25
Match Odds: Blackpool 3.40, Draw 3.45, Blackburn 2.30
Well last week a fifth minute equalising goal from Sunderland's Darren Bent ensured we made another profit on the week, although the other two games did not come close to being a draw.
I have again found three matches that are worthy of backing the draw. The match with biggest draw bias is certainly Blackpool v Blackburn.
Blackpool's home record against teams of Blackburn's grading is W0 D1 L0. Blackburn's away record against teams of Blackpool's grading last season was W2 D4 L0.
When teams of similar grade have met the recent record is H8 D16 A7. These two teams have not met recently.
Blackburn have drawn three of their last five away games and Blackpool have drawn one of their last five.
If this game is a draw it will probably not be 0-0. Three of Blackpool's last four draws at home have ended 2-2 and there is a strong statistical bias that both teams will score. The odds for both teams to score is available at a very skinny 1.67.
The draw is best priced at 3.45 with both bookmakers and betting exchanges.
Tip: Blackpool v Blackburn (Draw 3.45)
The other draws I will be backing this weekend are Fulham v Everton (3.45) and Newcastle v Stoke (3.50)
* For more expert betting tips visit Pete Nordsted's website Premier Betting
