"A recent note by Teun Draaisma, European strategist at Morgan Stanley, highlights a book by Russell Napier, 'Anatomy of the Bear' (2007). Napier analyses US equities over the past 100 years, finds the four best times to buy and hold equities for ten or more years and identifies common features of these historic market bottoms. He notes that stocks tend to move up to grossly overvalued levels (such as in 2000) and then a major bear market ensues, lasting for an average of 14 years as valuations fall back to extremely low levels."
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