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Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis

A modern treatment of Hurst's original system of financial market analysis

By Christopher Grafton

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About the Author

Christopher Grafton

Christopher Grafton is currently Director, Principal Analyst and Systems Developer at Vectisma Ltd., an independent market analysis firm focusing on Japanese equities with a global macro overlay, based in England. Previously, he has held positions on the sell side at several investment banks in London and Tokyo and also worked as an analyst and trader for a London-based hedge fund specialising in ... Read more on Christopher Grafton

Contents Listing

About the author
Acknowledgments and thanks

Introduction

1. The Properties Of Cycles
Introduction
Basic Quantities
Visualising Period and Amplitude
How Cycles Combine
Properties of Market Cycles
Conclusion

2. Basic Tools I: Valid Trendlines
Trend and Trendlines
The Concept of Trendlines
Trend Direction
Trend Strength
The Real Nature of Trend
The Valid Trendline (VTL)
The Key Role Played by VTLs
Conclusion

3. Basic Tools II: Displaced Cycles - The FLD
Introduction
Properties of the FLD
Plotting the FLD
Applying FLDs
FLD Combinations
Conclusion

4. Isolating Market Cycles I
Introduction
Cycle Envelopes
Phasing Analysis Set Up
Conducting a Phasing Analysis
Conclusion

5. Isolating Cycles II
Introduction
Spectral Analysis
Phasing Analysis - Daily Chart
Conclusion

6. Selection, Set Up And Entry
Introduction
Creating a Shortlist
Scanning Charts
Entering the Trade
Short Selling
Conclusion

7. Managing Open Positions
Introduction
Case Study - JP Morgan Chase 2002/2003
Conclusion

8. RSI And Elliott Wave
Introduction
RSI and Elliott Wave - The Basics
Case Study I: Gold, November 2008
Case Study II: Euro/USD, January 2010
Conclusion

Conclusion

Appendices
Appendix 1: Elliott Wave Patterns
Appendix 2: FLD Code
Appendix 3: Inverse Moving Average Code
Appendix 4: Cycle Envelope Code
Appendix 5: Diamonds Grid and Numbers
Appendix 6: Final Diamond Placement Code
Appendix 7: Discrete Fourier Transform Code
Appendix 8: Volatility Index code
Recommended further reading
The Sentient Trader

Index
About the author
Acknowledgments and thanks

Introduction

1. The Properties Of Cycles
Introduction
Basic Quantities
Visualising Period and Amplitude
How Cycles Combine
Properties of Market Cycles
Conclusion

2. Basic Tools I: Valid Trendlines
Trend and Trendlines
The Concept of Trendlines
Trend Direction
Trend Strength
The Real Nature of Trend
The Valid Trendline (VTL)
The Key ...

Jacket Text

One of the best classical methods of technical analysis brought up to date

This book offers a modern treatment of Hurst's original system of market cycle analysis. It will teach you how to get to the point where you can isolate cycles in any freely-traded financial instrument and make an assessment of their likely future course.

Although Hurst's methodology can seem outwardly complex, the logic underpinning it is straightforward. With practice the skill needed to conduct a full cycle analysis quickly and effectively will become second nature. The rewards for becoming adept are high conviction trades, tight risk management and mastery of a largely non-correlated system of analysis.

In this extensive step-by-step guide you will find a full description of the principal tools and techniques taught by Hurst as well as over 120 colour charts, together with tables and diagrams. The Updata and TradeStation code for all of the indicators shown is also included.

Professional Reviews

"A carefully constructed, thorough and extremely readable guide to a complicated area of technical analysis. It is well presented and illustrated throughout with 120 legible diagrams and financial charts, showing real examples from the markets that make Hurst's work accessible." - Money Maker magazine

"This book is highly-recommended for any market analyst or trader who wishes to add cycles to their analytical toolbox. This is a clear and concise introduction." - Bill Sarubbi, Fund Manager, Cycles Research Investments LLC, Vienna

"Cycles are one of the most underutilised, and yet most rewarding, sources of information available to an analyst or investor. If it is possible to anticipate a reversal, and track it in real time, then eager investors should want to know about it. Until relatively recently, cycles have not been properly understood, so there has been a dearth of practical knowledge. This gap is now being filled by dedicated researchers such as Chris Grafton. His book brings together the ideas of one of the pioneers of cycle analysis - the engineer, J.M. Hurst - and presents them in an easily understandable and very useable form. Once mastered, the techniques explored in the book should be a source of significantly enhanced market understanding and very profitable investment." - Tony Plummer, Author, Forecasting Financial Markets, Director, Helmsman Economics Ltd

"I really like this book. It takes the excellent original idea of Hurst and brings it right up-to-date in the modern computer era. It explains cycles and harmonics and shows how to construct Valid Trend Lines and Lines of Future Demarcation. It does not pretend that this subject is easy, but does explain it with very clear charts and writing. The work shows the relationship to Elliott waves and RSI oscillations. There are some clear worked examples and ideas of how to put on and manage a trade. Most investors will find it a useful addition to their knowledge. Well done Chris Grafton." - Robin Griffiths, Cazenove Capital Management

"Through clear, straightforward explanations of the tools and up-to-date market illustrations, Grafton makes Hurst cycle analysis accessible to today's trader. Readers gain not only a thorough understanding of cycles but also the skills to begin implementing cyclic analysis immediately." - Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT, Editor of the Journal of Technical Analysis and coauthor of Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians

"JM Hurst's Cyclic Principles are perhaps the most powerful yet misunderstood concepts about the workings of financial markets in the history of financial trading. Published in the 1970s, Hurst's work has survived into the 21st century because it is so powerful and effective, but the application of his principles and the practice of his trading methodology have been shrouded in a cloak of arcane mystery. Christopher Grafton has done a great service to the 21st century trader by thoroughly presenting Hurst's work in a format that replaces the pencil, eraser and chart pad with a computer. Armed with the tools that Grafton includes in the book (and an understanding of how to apply them) the reader will be well placed to start honing their analytical skills and putting this powerful theory to profitable use." - David Hickson, creator of Sentient Trader - Hurst Trading System (www.sentienttrader.com)


Media Coverage

Money Maker Magazine

In this brand new book Christopher Grafton, an experienced trader and member of the Market Technicians Association, tackles the cycles analysis work of J.M. Hurst and provides a meticulous guide for ...

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Traders Day Trading

Introduction to JM Hurst Cycles Analysis Methods

An Introduction to JM Hurst Cycles Analysis Methods. Article submitted by Christopher Grafton, Author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. ...

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Traders Magazine

In this brand new book Christopher Grafton, an experienced trader and member of the Market Technicians Association, tackles the cycles analysis work of J.M. Hurst and provides a meticulous guide for ...

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Traders Day Trading

As a trader who uses technical analysis, I found Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis, by Christopher Grafton a very interesting read. www.tradersdaytrading.com visitors and regular readers of Kenny?s ...

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The Elliot Wave Theorist

One of the books from the 1970s that I often recommend is J.M. Hurst?s book on market cycles. I used to do a lot of work on market cycles and even have a chapter about them in Market Analysis for the ...

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MTA Technically Speaking

MASTERING HURST CYCLE ANALYSIS
BY CHRISTOPHER GRAFTON, CMT
REVIEWED BY MIKE CARR, CMT

Hurst?s cycle work is one of the pillars of technical analysis, but has been largely inaccessible and ...

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Trading Diary

1. Who are you?

I have worked on the Japanese equity sales desks at a couple of different investment banks, both in London and Tokyo. I was also an analyst and a trader at a small cap value hedge ...

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Ytemagazine.com

Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis - Book Review Jan/Feb 2012- Your Trading Edge Magazine6th January 2012

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Docs.mta.org

"This book takes cycle analysis into the modern trading day, updating Hurst?s classic work from the 1960s and 1970s with technology available today. Grafton has done a commendable job both in ...

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Tradingdiary.co.uk

Christopher Grafton 'Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis' Interview - Trading Diary4th December 2011

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