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The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007

By Kerry Balenthiran

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About the Author

Kerry Balenthiran

Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and now works as a consultant within financial services. His mathematical background led to a fascination with the cyclical nature of stock market booms and busts.

Contents Listing

Introduction

1. Commodity Cycles
2. Business Cycles - A Historical Perspective
3. Business Cycles - A Modern Psychological Perspective
4. Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
Part I: Bull Market 1982 to 2000
Part II: Bear Market 1929 to 1947
Part III: Bull Market 1947 to 1965 and Bear Market 1965 to 1982
Part V: Bear Market 2000 to 2018
5. How to Trade the Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
6. Conclusion

Appendices
How I Discovered the 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
Bibliography
Index
Introduction

1. Commodity Cycles
2. Business Cycles - A Historical Perspective
3. Business Cycles - A Modern Psychological Perspective
4. Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
Part I: Bull Market 1982 to 2000
Part II: Bear Market 1929 to 1947
Part III: Bull Market 1947 to 1965 and Bear Market 1965 to 1982
Part V: Bear Market 2000 to 2018
5. How to Trade the Balenthiran 17.6 Year Stock Market C ...

Jacket Text

How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market?

The answers to the above questions are critical to forming an appropriate investment strategy to plan for the future. The difference between anticipating the end of a secular (or cyclical) bull market and reacting to the significant crash that follows will have a big impact on anyone's investment returns and retirement plans.

This book is concerned with cycles. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market.

Kerry Balenthiran has studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years. He has also extrapolated the cycle forwards to provide investors with a market roadmap stretching out to 2053. He describes this in detail and outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle.

Whether you are an investment professional or private investor, this book provides a fascinating insight into the cyclical nature of the stock market and enables you to ensure that you have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.

Professional Reviews

"An excellent book" - MoneyMaker magazine

"Well researched and a good read...a great first book and more importantly could be an excellent anchor for what follows" - Capitalsynthesis

"Kerry Balenthiran is a brilliant cycles analyst" - Dominic Picarda, Investors Chronicle

"The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle is a relatively slight book because it contains so few wasted words. I enjoyed the brief tours of cycle theory and stock market history and take some comfort from the conclusions Kerry Balenthiran draws." - Richard Beddard, Interactive Investor

"Instructional as well as inspirational" - Dividend Income Investor

"All in all, I think the book does a good job at laying out some well known economic cycles, and presents an interesting hypothesis with an elegant pattern that tries to connect them." - Danny Van den Berghe, Lunatic Trader


Media Coverage

Investors Chronicle

Equities have been in a long-term bear market since 2000. Long periods of equity underperformance like this have happened regularly in the past - much more regularly than most might imagine. In this ...

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CNBC Europe

A long term bear market is around the corner and will last until 2018, with the Dow losing up to 30 percent of its current value, Kerry Balenthiran, author of "The 17.6 Years Stock Market Cycle", ...

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Traders Day Trading

With stock markets around the world at or near all time highs it is tempting to think that we are in a new stocks bull market. But was 2009 the start of a new secular stocks bull market? Are we ...

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Seeking Alpha

Kerry Balenthiran's 'The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007' (Harriman House, 2013) is a difficult book to review. The problem is that in this 91-page ...

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Interactive Investor

Mathematician Kerry Balenthiran says a 17.6 year bear market is entering its final phase. It will be followed by a 17.6 year bull market.

Despite its precision Kerry Balenthiran is not the first to ...

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Pensions World

Everyone is familiar with the cycle of the seasons, but stock markets are cyclical too. This book?s subtitle is "connecting the panics of 1929, 1987, 2007", and researches key questions such as: When ...

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Dividend Income Investor

With the FTSE100 index heading for 6500 again are we slowly but surely heading for a massive fall? With two previous major turning points at 6951 (30 December 2000) and 6751 (18 June 2007) will we be ...

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Traders' Magazine

With major equity markets either at, or close to, all time highs, there is a temptation to think that the recent turmoil is behind us and that we are once again in the midst of a bull market in ...

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MoneyMaker Magazine

Boom and bust occurs much more frequently than many imagine and by studying historic stock market cycles we can learn a lot about their likely duration and also what to expect along the way. A cycle ...

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Your Trading Edge Magazine

Author Kerry Balenthiran studied mathematics at the University of Warwick and then worked as a Spacecraft Operations Engineer in the UK and at the European Space Agency. He qualified as a chartered ...

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The Daily Telegraph

If Kerry Balenthiran is to be believed, the world could enter a major bull market that will run until 2035

I?m a great fan of short investment books on the grounds that, while investing is not easy, ...

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The Stock Trader's Almanac 2015

The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 200, Kerry Balenthiran, Harriman House, $32.99.

This British-chartered accountant with a maths and engineering ...

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